It is just 100 days until Election Day. And if the last month is any indication, it’ll be a chaotic sprint to the finish line between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The United States has seen upheaval in past presidential races, notably with the incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson standing aside as a Democratic candidate in his party’s 1968 primaries amid growing tensions over his handling of the Vietnam War.
But this year’s contest has been a race like no other.
President Joe Biden’s decision last week to withdraw from the 2024 race risked throwing his party into chaos. Instead, led by Biden, Democrats have quickly rallied around Harris. There’s enthusiasm for her historic candidacy and the reality that November won’t feature a 2020 rematch that voters had long said they did not want.
Biden’s announcement came nearly a month after a disastrous June debate performance that elevated concerns around his age and fitness to campaign effectively in the final months of the campaign. Over the course of weeks, Biden’s supporters one-by-one called on him to step aside. Then came the attempted assassination of Trump, rallying his base ahead of the Republican National Convention.
It now seems almost certain that Harris will be the Democratic presidential nominee, but voters won’t know for sure until at least early next month when Democrats are set to hold a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. In the meantime, everyone is waiting to see who she will pick as her running mate.
As for the Trump camp, confidence in a blow-out victory has now suddenly given way to panic since Biden stepped aside and Harris consolidated support among Democratic leaders.
Trump’s choice for vice president isn’t helping. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, a choice that cast aside any effort to balance the ticket in favor of appointing a MAGA heir apparent, initially fired up the GOP base. But Vance’s debut has been so rocky that even some fellow Republicans are nervous about his potential impact on the ticket.
The 2024 campaign has shifted so dramatically so many times recently that there’s just no telling what the next few months will bring. Here’s a look at where the contest stands and what’s to come.
Harris opens up new potential paths to victory
Since entering the race, Harris has shown momentum in early polling.
The latest New York Times/Siena College survey showed the vice president essentially resetting the race and narrowing what had been a growing Biden polling deficit against Trump. In the poll, released last week, Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) among likely voters. The previous Times/Siena poll had Trump ahead of Biden 49% to 43% among likely voters.
A Wall Street Journal poll found the national race too close to call — with Trump leading Harris 49% to 47% — after previously showing Trump with a six-point lead over Biden. A CNN-SSRS poll also showed the race within the margin of error.
But the best news for the vice president is further down in the data.
Harris is eclipsing Biden’s performance among Black and Latino voters. This improvement could drastically expand the Democratic Party’s path to 270 Electoral College votes.
Before Biden dropped out, Democrats’ best hope seemed to be to run the table in the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania while holding onto the Omaha-area 2nd congressional district in Nebraska.
That left Biden little room for error. This became worrisome for the Biden campaign as warning signs flashed in states like Virginia and New Hampshire. If the bottom fell out, there were even some concerns that states like Minnesota and New Mexico could move toward Trump.
If Harris can maintain her support among Black voters, a state like North Carolina, where Democrats have wanted to go on the offensive, could become more competitive. Harris could also perform better in Georgia, which Biden narrowly carried in 2020.
Harris’ potential strength in the Sun Belt means Democrats may not have to bet it all on the “Blue Wall.” There are also early signs of potential relief in New Hampshire, as Harris — in a recent Saint Anselm College survey — held a solid six-point lead over Trump in the state.
Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, has tried to get out ahead of the shift.
His campaign is convinced this is only a Harris “honeymoon” period and a temporary high. But with so little time left before Election Day, Harris has several opportunities to generate more enthusiasm. She will likely name a vice president in early August. The Democratic National Convention is on August 19. And then there’s a scheduled debate in September, a month before the election.
It’s hard to say how much the convention will help Harris. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore received a significant post-convention bounce in his race against then-Gov. George W. Bush. But, in recent years, such a surge in support has been less dramatic. In 2020, neither Biden nor Trump received a major bump after their respective conventions. However, Biden maintained a steady national lead throughout that contest.
The positive early polling is a great sign for the vice president, but it isn’t the only metric that shows momentum. Since Biden dropped out, Harris’ campaign has raised over $126 million. Over 1.4 million of those donors have given small donations. It’s a historic pace that makes certain her campaign will be well-funded down the stretch.
Trump’s pick for vice president makes things interesting
Vice presidential picks are far from guaranteed to help a presidential hopeful win a state. But, at the very least, they should avoid damaging their chances.
Vance is off to a rough start. At this point, he’s already set a record for the worst polling for a vice presidential nominee.
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The first-term GOP lawmaker has faced a torrent of criticism over old comments criticizing “childless cat ladies.” It didn’t help matters that he applied this label to Harris, who became a co-parent to two teenagers when she married now-second gentleman Doug Emhoff in 2014.
Trump threw out the traditional playbook by selecting Vance.
Typically, presidential nominees select a running mate who balances the ticket, either regionally or ideologically. Mike Pence, for example, signaled Trump’s desire in 2016 to appeal to traditional conservatives. Some Trump advisors also urged the president to tap a more diverse pick. Instead, the former president elevated a like-minded conservative.
Vance, who is 39, would be the first millennial vice president. He is also the first military veteran to be on a ticket since 2008 when then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona was the GOP presidential nominee.
There was hope that Vance could help Trump appeal to white working-class voters in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. But the Ohio Republican has only run a single campaign. And in his 2022 Senate race, Vance vastly underperformed compared to other Ohio Republicans on the ballot that year.
Harris’ pick for vice president could further shake things up
Harris is likely to pick a vice president who can help move a swing state into her column, the sort of move that Republicans would fret over given Trump’s struggles with suburban voters and the reluctance of many independents to back his third White House bid.
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Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Tim Walz of Minnesota appear to be Harris’ leading choices, according to Bloomberg.
Other potential running mates include Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
A wild card pick like former Rep. Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, who has reportedly been vetted as a potential choice, also may be on the table.
Harris will likely prioritize a running mate with an established track record of winning in a battleground state. It may not guarantee her a state’s electoral votes, but it could prove essential in helping move undecided voters into her column in a race where every vote will matter.
The top candidates on Harris’ shortlist all have unique strengths. Kelly, a former Navy combat pilot and former astronaut, has the sort of appeal that could boost the Democratic ticket in purple Arizona. Shapiro is a highly regarded governor in a must-win state for Democrats. And Walz, a former congressman, could help attract Midwestern voters in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
With Biden out of the race, Democrats will likely seek to tie the election — anchored by Harris’ candidacy — to the party’s future. And in a contest with Trump, Democrats are banking that their ticket will be able to present itself as a mainstream choice in an election race that has at times gone of the rails, seems never-ending, but is just months away from being over.
